Preparing for winter weather

Last month was amongst the wettest Septembers on record for much of central and southern England. Oxfordshire for example recorded its wettest month in 250 years. However, according to the annual government briefing to the CLA and other rural stakeholders, as we head into winter the weather looks set to return to normal for the time of year.

The Met Office forecasts that early winter (October-December) will bring average or milder-than-average temperatures and usual amounts of rain. There is an increased chance, compared to normal, of colder, drier spells in November and December. The Met Office expects the usual winter storms to roll in, but not the intense battering and abnormally wet periods we experienced last winter. With the term ‘normal’, the Met Office incorporates the impacts of climate change, so land managers should factor in a potentially milder, wetter winter than they may have planned for in the past.

It was reassuring to hear that there is likely to be a more settled period of weather in the coming few weeks, providing time for soils to dry. This should help avoid a similar situation to last year where heavy autumn rainfall exacerbated the impact of winter rain falling on saturated ground. Nevertheless, river flows are likely to remain elevated above normal in much of England over the next three months. In Wales and western England, the Flood Forecasting Centre expects normal river flows this month, potentially rising to above-normal river flows until December. Groundwater levels are likely to be above normal too.

Overall, the message remains to be prepared, as flooding is likely to occur in some places. The weather and flood risk in January and February cannot yet be forecast with confidence.

In the recent briefing, we also heard how the Environment Agency (EA) has bolstered its preparations for flooding by learning lessons from last winter. It formed a specific ‘planning cell’ last July to streamline emergency-response processes and to coordinate drills with its incident response teams, the army, fire services, and local government. It is also working with new MPs to ensure that they know how to support responses to floods within their constituencies. Combined with resolutions to several trade-union disputes which hampered last winter’s response, the EA pitched itself as more resilient and agile.

At the forefront of many members’ minds will be the Farming Recovery Fund, specifically the lack of payments made to those announced as eligible in May during the dying days of the Conservative government. This was debated last week by peers in the House of Lords, but the uncertainty continues: Defra cannot provide further information until after the budget on the 30 October.

The Rural Payments Agency (RPA) has nonetheless reassured us that it is ready to distribute funding as soon as it receives funds and instruction from Defra. The RPA also intends to become more proactive in communications around flooding, which will hopefully mean swifter notification of derogations to agri-environment schemes in the future.

For advice on winter readiness, please read this month’s feature in Land & Business magazine which also covers the CLA’s recent policy and partnership work on flooding. Some ways to improve your winter readiness include: 

• Monitoring your flood risk (including from coastal flooding if relevant)
• Checking whether you have the correct insurance cover for your needs
• Preparing an emergency flood response plan, detailing what to do when flooding is imminent – e.g., moving equipment and livestock to higher ground, switching off utilities, and taking pictures to help with insurance claims
• Assembling an emergency flood kit, a grab bag to facilitate speedy evacuation

Longer term, to build resilience, you may wish to invest in property-level flood resilience and set aside frequently flooded land to hold floodwater. See the article for further details and grants available.